Monday, August 30, 2010

2011-2013: Top 10 Digital media trends & bets

I strongly believe that finally internet in India is on the threshold of inflection. In this scenario what will be the big trends & bets over next 3 years? List of my Top 10 is given below. I encourage readers to add theirs...
  1. Mobile broadband: With close to INR 70,000 crore having been paid by the Telecom companies to the government for the 3G licenses, we should see a surge in number of users connecting to the internet through their mobile phone which will be aided by the fact that almost all modern mobile handsets have the capability to access the internet.
  2. Continued interest in Social Media: The stats released by Comscore for July 2010 revealed that more than 33 million Internet users in India visited social networking sites, representing 84 percent of the total Internet audience. This was a growth of 43% over a 12 month period whilst the Total audience grew only by 13%. I feel that Social media will have continued interest.
  3. Decline in standalone email & instant messaging usage: I envisage the email & instant messaging applications of the social media platforms undergoing a huge improvement and matching the features & functionalities of the stand alone services. As users get more hooked onto the Social media platforms like Facebok & Orkut, the users will start using the instant messaging & email services built into these platforms to interact with others more and this will gradually reduce & replace the usage of standalone email & instant messaging services
  4. Surge in eCommerce: Barring Travel, that too Air & Railway tickets, India has not witnessed significant numbers in other ecommerce verticals. I foresee non travel ecommerce taking off in a big way over next 3 years spurred by verticals like Deal-a-day, Books, Gifting, Luxury retail etc.
  5. Explosion of Digital advertising spends in India: Digital advertising in India to constitute at least 7% (up from under 3% as of now) of total ad spends over next 3 years. The growth will also get spurred by mobile advertising & DTH advertising. There will be continued dominance of performance metrics based pricing.
  6. Demand for relevant Audiences: There will a demand from advertisers for delivery of audiences vis-à-vis delivery of traffic. There will be emergence of more options for targeting users on behavior, demographic & contextual relevancy including location based advertising.
  7. Rich media consumption: With higher speed of internet access, users will start consuming more rich media content.
  8. Mobile internet: Users will access internet through various devices (ala iPads etc.) and not only through smartphones or desktops/laptops. With this there will also be an explosion in usage of mobile applications.
  9. Mobile payments & mCommerce: Mobile payments & mCommerce should take off over next 3 years in a major way.
  10. Innovations & Entrepreneurship: We should see a Silicon Valley kind of environment in India over next 3 years with lot of entrepreneurial ideas & innovations happening.


Ryan said...

Shift happens. When a market shifts, how quickly does it take for the early adoption rate to spill over into mainstream? Sometimes not as long as you think.

Rajan said...

1. Mobile Ad networks

2. Content will remain free

3. Movie & event tickets

4. Hotel bookings

sanjaykrsingh said...


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Enterprise Feedback Management said...

I foresee non travel ecommerce taking off in a big way over next 3 years spurred by verticals like Deal-a-day, Books, Gifting, Luxury retail etc.

Anonymous said...

As to Nr 3, I disagree.

Social network users are becoming picky customers who want an "a la carte" panel of choices.

Facebook / orkut / etc... serve a very different purpose than tweeter, gmail or skype. Users will most likely choose several applications and use them all at the same time for various purposes.

Just because a chat function is available on all of these doesn't entail their subsidising each other.

Facebook doesn't offer calling services and doesn't intend to replace dedicated e-mail platforms.

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